Convincing Features
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Forecasts are a critical part of the operations manager’s function. Demand forecasts drive a firm’s production, capacity, and scheduling systems and affect the financial, marketing, and personnel planning functions. There are a variety of qualitative and quantitative forecasting techniques. Qualitative approaches employ judgment, experience, intuition, and a host of other difficult-to-quantify factors. Quantitative forecasting uses historical data and causal, or associative, relations to project future demands (Heizer, Render & Munson, 2017).
Figure: Hard Rock Café Logo
Hard Rock Cafe uses moving averages, weighted moving averages, exponential smoothing, and regression analysis for forecasting. Sales forecasts drive many short-term and long-term decisions within the company, including long-term purchasing commitments and cash flow forecasts for borrowing needs. Forecast variances are computed, and root causes of those variances are sought out whenever the variances are too high. Counting the number of people that come through the door and knowing how many ordered menu items vs. other things, drives the sales forecast. Point-of-sale registers at each restaurant provide that information to the corporate office.
The weighted moving average forecasting technique is used to set sales and bonus targets for store managers. Managers can estimate the price elasticity of demand for each menu item, and they can accurately estimate the impact of a price increase for one item on the demand for other items on the menu. Based on the case above, students are required to discuss the forecasting and the approach used to increase the company’s sales and growth.
⦁ Discuss why forecasting is important for the organization.
⦁ Construct all the weaknesses of the standard forecasting techniques as applied to this set of data?
⦁ Because known models are not appropriate here, propose your own approach to forecasting. Although there is no perfect solution to tackling data such as these (in other words, there are no 100% right or wrong answers), justify your model.
⦁ Forecast demand for next year using the model you propose and explain the efficiency and effectiveness of the company.
⦁ Explain the operations managers duties and responsibility in sustaining the companies effectiveness.
⦁ Explain the current trend and challenges faced by the organization and the approach used by the operation manager in tackling the issues.
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